Popular vote on November 30, 2025: initiative for the future

Could the ’Future Initiative« threaten the Swiss economy and its SMEs?

On 30 November, the Swiss public will vote on the ’Initiative for the Future«, put forward by the Young Socialists, which aims to introduce a federal tax of 50% on inheritances and gifts exceeding 50 million francs. The revenue would be allocated to the green transition, with the Confederation receiving two-thirds and the cantons one-third. Business circles believe that this initiative would harm the Swiss economy and have disastrous repercussions, particularly on family-run SMEs and jobs: an analysis.

Current situation

At present, the vast majority of cantons already levy inheritance and gift tax. However, direct descendants are exempt in all cantons, with the exception of the cantons of Vaud, Neuchâtel and Appenzell Innerrhoden, where inheritances and gifts may be taxed at rates of up to 71% in the canton of Vaud, 31% in Neuchâtel and 11% in Appenzell Innerrhoden.

The initiative thus aims to give the Confederation the power to collect this tax itself in order to finance the ecological transition.

The initiative

The initiative proposes introducing an inheritance and gift tax at federal level. The Confederation would thus tax inheritances and gifts exceeding 50 million francs at a rate of 50%. The Confederation would be entitled to two-thirds of the revenue generated by this tax and the cantons to one-third. Furthermore, the initiative calls for all of this revenue to be allocated to combating global warming and supporting the ecological transition.

Furthermore, the initiative makes no provision for exceptions: any gift, even one made to a surviving spouse, their children, or even a public-interest foundation, would be subject to this tax and this, as of 30 November 2025, if the initiative is accepted.

Furthermore, all previous donations (but made from 30 November 2025) made by a taxpayer would be taken into account when calculating the €50 million tax-free allowance. This would therefore leave the taxpayer no possibility of avoiding the payment of this tax when their fortune exceeds €50 million.

More tax revenue for the state?

Estimates of the additional revenue generated by this tax differ. According to the initiative committee, it would be around 6 billion francs in additional funds for the state coffers. The Federal Tax Administration (FTA), on the other hand, estimates the theoretical additional revenue at only 4.3 billion francs. However, the FTA, relying on an external analysis carried out in 2024, warns that the entry into force of this new tax would encourage some wealthy taxpayers to leave the country. According to figures put forward by the FTA, the emigration of wealthy taxpayers would ultimately result in estimated tax losses of between 200 million and 3.6 billion francs.

Challenges surrounding the initiative 

For economic circles, the introduction of such a tax at the federal level would have major consequences on several levels.

First and foremost, the transfer of family SMEs would become more complicated, thus threatening their sustainability and indirectly employment. Secondly, the departure of wealthy taxpayers, such as entrepreneurs, would also weigh on the economy, employment, and ultimately the middle class. The tax losses caused by the departure of affluent taxpayers would most likely be passed on to the middle class. Indeed, to cope with this shortfall, the State would then have to either i) increase taxes on individuals, for example, or ii) cut social benefits. The middle class would very certainly be the first to feel the effects.

Finally, some voices also fear that the acceptance of this initiative could reduce Switzerland's attractiveness. Indeed, wealthy individuals wishing to settle in our country would then think twice before taking up residence in Switzerland if such taxation were to be implemented. The creation of new jobs and the collection of new tax revenues due to the arrival of rich individuals would then be compromised.

Tax planning to consider by 30 November 2025?

Although according to the latest poll, the initiative is expected to be rejected by the Swiss, some taxpayers are already taking steps by, for example, making donations to their heirs. Some are even considering leaving Switzerland. It should be noted that departure would likely materialise before the potential entry into force, since the initiative requires the Confederation to take the necessary measures so that no tax avoidance measures are possible. On this last point, there is currently legal ambiguity regarding the possibility or not of introducing such a measure. The Federal Council would, moreover, for constitutional reasons, be opposed to the collection of wealth tax from individuals leaving the country.

Conclusion

The «for the future» initiative, which is being put to a popular vote, asks the Swiss people to decide on a major political choice: to finance part of the ecological transition via a heavy tax on inheritances exceeding 50 million francs, while risking weakening the Swiss economic fabric, the job market, but also complicating the transfer of family SMEs. For all these reasons, the Federal Council and Parliament recommend rejecting this initiative. The Swiss will therefore have the final say on 30 November.